A "couple of hundred" mortgage banking firms could fail in the next year or so as the industry works out its excess capacity, according to the chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association. "It could be a significant" number of firms, said the MBA's Doug Duncan at a forecast conference hosted for the media. "There's a lot of capacity in the industry," he said. The trade group, though, does not think residential production will fall off the cliff this year. The MBA is forecasting that home lenders of all stripes will fund $2.4 trillion in loans this year -- 45% of it refinancings -- compared with $2.5 trillion in 2006. (The MBA's volume number for 2006 differs from that of the Quarterly Data Report, which found lenders funded about $3 trillion in 2006.) Over the past three months several mortgage firms have exited the business, either through merger or failure.
(For a partial listing, see the Jan. 15 issue of National Mortgage News.)
On December 17, 2006, I posted a Blog titled; "Yes The Mortgage Business Is Going Through a Shakeup - Be Thankful." In it, I wrote the following:
Over the past few years, mortgage ranks have swollen from 180,000 to over 300,000 people in the industry. That's a whole lot of people who have only known the golden days of the refi-boom. They know how to be an order-taker not a loan officer (thankfully all of us are true professional mortgage consultants).
Loan Originators who have been around for 10 to 15 years or more know what it means to ORIGINATE a loan. It means marketing yourself aggressively, building a reputation, and generating a steady stream of referrals. They've seen high rates and low rates and they know that this too will pass. Rates will go down again, and they'll be well prepared to take advantage of the next interest cycle. Veteran producers aren't giving-up. Neither should you. Decide now if you have the determination to stick-it out. Do you have a passion for what you do?
Be thankful for the shake-up because it means a whole lot of unskilled loan officers will go the way of the saber tooth tiger and stop ruining the reputation of the industry. Best of all, it means a whole lot more business for you!
As we are witnessing with the lenders MBA is warning about, this same shakeup applies to mortgage lenders.
Our business will only get stronger.